The Trump Administration has jettisoned so-called soft power foreign policy practices that for decades created goodwill toward the U.S. and increased American influence around the world at a relatively low cost. An inventory of soft power tools includes humanitarian assistance, investments in public health, conflict resolution and stabilization initiatives, democracy and free speech promotion, and the broadcasting of trustworthy news and information.
The weakening of U.S. soft power comes at a time when the U.S. and other Western governments are seeking to break China’s near monopoly on the mining and processing of strategic materials required by digital infrastructure critical to national defense and for achieving a sustainable energy future.
The massive up-front investment required in mining and related operations renders the current climate of heightened political and operational risk particularly problematic for business interests. The dramatic recent pullback from the use of so-called soft power by the United States has created a vacuum in the human security space that geopolitical rivals are capitalizing on to discredit western business activities in the developing world.
Upsurge in Disinformation Campaigns with No Counter Narratives
The soft power vacuum is being filled by Chinese and Russan anti-Western propaganda and disinformation campaigns. The Chinese Communist Party is implementing a global strategy of heavy media investment to gain influence in developing countries through the propagation of anti-Western narratives. Russia is doing the same to erode US access, presence, and influence.[1]
Even before the recent dismantling of U.S. soft power, countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger were subjected to pro-Russian, anti-western propaganda, which contributed to popular support for military coups and actions against western companies such as Canada’s Barrick Gold and Australia’s Resolute Mining. This is part of a Russian strategy to increase its control of gold resources in order to evade Western sanctions in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine.
Russia adopted a similar strategy to increase its control over natural gas in Africa more than a decade ago. At the time, Russian business interests facilitated the flow of arms to Nigeria’s petroleum- and natural gas-rich Niger Delta. The arms, and an infusion of foreign operatives, led to the sabotage of pipelines and oil theft on an industrial scale, which drove Western oil companies out of the Niger Delta and led to the granting of new concessions to Nigerian companies with significant Russian ownership.
Russia’s propaganda campaign is now in overdrive and according to the evidence we are gathering effectively influencing youth in several African countries to take an anti-Western stance. While this campaign is underway, the U.S. government has silenced counter narratives by shuttering agencies such as the Voice of America (VOA). VOA, with a mandate to offer fact-based news and information, was widely seen as a reliable source of news and information by millions of viewers and listeners.
In Burkina Faso, the Russian-backed disinformation push uses AI generated fake videos in different languages to promote the country’s military ruler, Ibrahim Traore. In one YouTube video, Pope Leo XIV is seen voicing support for Traore because of his opposition to neocolonialist Western powers and his concern for the downtrodden. Also problematic are AI-generated videos of African-American entertainers like Beyonce and R. Kelly singing the praises of the young Burkinabe military leader. According to experts in Africa interviewed by the authors of this paper, the fake YouTube videos look so authentic that youth in multiple countries believe Traore is a modern-day Pan-African liberator. YouTube deletes these fake videos, but new ones appear daily on social media.
The messaging is very clever and effective, often appealing to alienated youth and underscoring the continent’s historic struggle against European colonialism. Sub-Saharan countries are typically challenged by a huge youth demographic. Many of these young people find it difficult to make a living and to achieve respectable social standing. The precariousness of their position leaves them vulnerable to political manipulation.
As noted in a study mapping the surge of disinformation in Africa, Russia is behind most of these campaigns, “Russia continues to be the primary purveyor of disinformation in Africa, sponsoring 80 documented campaigns, targeting more than 22 countries.” [2]
China is equally active on the propaganda front. Journalists reported to the paper authors that Chinese media have begun broadcasting on local radios stations that previously carried VOA programming.
Jettisoning Community Stabilization Programs
In the all-important battle for hearts and minds, Western corporations benefited from US government initiatives in health, education, good governance, and community resilience. Programs delivered by US foreign assistance agencies played a critical role garnering good will among publics facing critical human security challenges. For instance, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), USAID worked with provincial governments and the private sector to achieve responsible artisanal mining; without such programs artisanal miners were forcibly taxed and subject to recruitment by local militias, which have engaged in violent actions against mining companies. The rug has been pulled out from under these USAID programs at a time when business concerns like California-based Kobold Metals are poised to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in mining operations in the DRC.
Just last year, USAID launched a project in Northern Benin to improve community resilience through economic development. Without a means for making a living, due to climate change, youth, especially pastoralists, have become vulnerable to recruitment by radical Islamist groups like JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin – the Support Group for Islam and Muslims), which is active across the Sahelian countries of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.
Before its elimination, USAID had launched the Benin Northern Economic Livelihoods for Youth, Women and Vulnerable, Populations (NELY) program. NELY activities were designed to improve social cohesion and community resilience to combat violent extremism through more equitable and diverse economic livelihoods access for youth, women, and vulnerable populations in targeted conflict areas.
A former coordinator of this project told the authors that with the cancellation of this program, youth are being recruited and kidnapped in increasing numbers by JNIM. He added that feeling abandoned, these communities are expressing anger towards the United States. He is concerned about a growing risk that the upcoming presidential elections, in January 2026, may create conditions for broader JNIM penetration into Benin, as a key objective of the violent extremists is to gain access to the coast.
A similar situation is occurring in Mozambique’s northern province of Cabo Delgado. There, an armed jihadist group, known locally as Mashababos, has had a dire impact on the local population and on foreign investments, including the development of an onshore liquified natural gas facility by TotalEnergies. The U.S. government once touted the LNG project as the largest ever private sector investment in Africa, and the U.S. Export Import Bank made a direct loan commitment of $4.7 billion dollars, money that was to be used to secure contracts for U.S.-based businesses. Terrorist attacks unleashed by the Islamists forced TotalEnergies to stop its operations and declare force majeure, releasing it from contractual obligations.
A civic activist based in Cabo Delgado province told the authors that USAID-sponsored humanitarian and social cohesion programs had begun to limit Mashababos recruitment abilities and former fighters were being successfully reintegrated into communities. He said:
Youth were seeing more hope and livelihood opportunities. But now with the withdrawal of USAID support, they are more easily recruited by the [violent extremists]. Local traditional leaders, administrators, religious leaders and others are upset because they no longer have the means to provide beneficial services to their communities, and they are feeling vulnerable because of the recruiting activities and attacks by the Mashababos. Also, the reintegration of former fighters has stopped. Youth are feeling desperate because they no longer have access to education and their future looks bleak…
Although the current U.S. administration has renewed the $4.7 billion-dollar loan commitment to TotalEnergies, the declaration of force majeure is still in effect.
It remains to be seen what impact the termination of USAID programs in other economically distressed communities will have on foreign investment. For example, in the mineral rich Copperbelt Province in Zambia, many health facilities have closed, and patients are no longer receiving preventative and lifesaving medications for malaria, HIV/AIDS, and TB. This will lead to a rise in formerly preventable deaths. Deteriorating health and social conditions are a formula for unrest that will undermine the fortunes of companies investing in the province.
Building a Better Future
Business interests, especially in the extractive industries, must be prepared to respond to psychological influence operations that are designed to foster anti-American and anti-Western beliefs. The decline of soft power assets formerly provided by US aid, development and information agencies renders the task yet more challenging.
Among the risk reduction options available to commercial interests are adherence to high social license standards to maintain the trust and goodwill of employees, stakeholders, and the public. Businesses should also publicize the positive impact they are having on local communities. Transparency in the agreements and commitments made to national and subnational authorities will foster goodwill, as will increasing industry efforts to improve public welfare. A case in point is the mineral-rich Zambian Copperbelt, where high rates of absenteeism, turnover, and injury caused by malaria led companies to develop their own malaria prevention and treatment programs. Success positively influenced local sentiment and steered the Zambian Ministry of Health to adopt similar programs in other parts of the country.
In addition to robust adherence to social responsibility principles, commercial interests can take the further step of pressing Congress and the executive branch to restore programs or create new ones that foster favorable opinions among Africans of the US and its allies. Such actions will be supportive of business and help to counter disinformation campaigns mounted by regimes like Russia and China that promote authoritarian models of development and governance.
[1] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/primer-russian-cognitive-warfare; https://africacenter.org/spotlight/china-strategy-africa-media-space/; https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-influence-latin-america-argentina-brazil-venezuela-security-energy-bri
[2] https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mapping-a-surge-of-disinformation-in-africa/
Authors:
Gregory Pirio, Ph.D.
Director of the Extractive Industries and Human Development Center
Hrach Gregorian, Ph.D.
President of IWA